Thursday, 3 September 2009

Tories backing Farage

Since the Daily Telegraph leaked the story about Nigel Farage's intention to stand against the Speaker, John Bercow, in the forthcoming general election, UKIP and Farage have been the hot topic of discussion.

Wherever Farage decided to stand, it was bound to hit the headlines but standing against Berscow is a definite headline-grabber given that the Speaker always stands uncontested by the big parties by Parliamentary convention.

We're in an era of political firsts at the moment. The party in power at Westminster has come 3rd in an EU election - the only party in the election to come out with less MEPs than they started with - and lost control of every local authority they controlled in England. The 4th largest political party in the UK is one that has no MPs at Westminster and the convention that the Speaker stands for re-election uncontested by major parties is effectively no longer respected having been contested by the SNP twice in the last two elections and will be again by UKIP next year.

Tim Montgomerie, the editor of Conservative Home, says that he'd be tempted to vote for Farage if he was in the constituency. Another Tory blogger, Right to Common Sense says the same thing. Andrew Allison and Dizzy, both heavyweight Tory bloggers, go one step further and say that they would actively campaign for Farage against Bercow. Iain Dale doesn't come out in favour of Farage in so many words but then you often have to read between the lines with Dale and then read between those lines to figure out what he's really thinking. He won't speak out against the Tories while they're on a winning streak but his failure to put down Farage speaks volumes. PoliticalBetting says that Ladbrokes have Farage at 4/1 to beat Bercow.

Farage can count not only on UKIP support during the next election but also on disaffected Tories, most of whom can't stand the fake conservative Bercow. And those Tories that think they can rely on Liebour voters ticking the box for Bercow to keep the seat are deluding themselves. Liebour voters would rather have Nigel Farage MP to fight against next time round than a Tory because they'll see him as a weaker candidate.

I might even have a punt on Farage myself, I reckon he's in with a good chance.