Friday, 14 October 2011

Another second place for UKIP

Yesterday's by-election in Meopham North saw UKIP achieve the second place predicted by Survation on Wednesday but by a much higher percentage.

Survation had predicted that the Conservative candidate would secure 52% of the vote and the UKIP candidate, Geoffrey Clark, would come second with 26%.  The actual result was 48% for the Conservative candidate and 34% for UKIP.

Meopham is only a village in Kent and the by-election for a council seat but it's important because the Gravesham constituency of which it is a part is known as a bellwether constituency, meaning the voting pattern matches that of the country as a whole - only one result has differed from the national result since the first world war.

It must be stressed that by-elections are not an accurate prophesy of general election results, especially council by-elections.  However, they do reflect the overall trend and that trend is an upwards one for UKIP.  I think Survation's predictions are probably more reflective of a possible general election result than a council election and that is very encouraging indeed.

Geoffrey Clark must be gutted to have missed victory by such a small number of votes - there were just 186 votes in it - but this is still an excellent result for UKIP.  The Tories will have watched this election result closely and they will be getting worried.