Friday, 20 April 2012

UKIP temporarily back in fourth in YouGov polls

The last two daily polls by YouGov have UKIP back in fourth place - a statistical anomaly or margin of error, I'm sure.

Wednesday's poll had the Lib Dems on 10% and UKIP on 8% with UKIP outpolling the Lib Dems in the north of England and midlands/Wales whilst Thursday's poll had the Lib Dems on 8% and UKIP on 7% with UKIP outpolling the Lib Dems in the north of England and level in midlands/Wales.

It's great to see UKIP polling so well and beating the Lib Dems in polling but the regional figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt because the sample is too small.  You need at least 1,000 respondents to provide an accurate prediction which is why the figures can fluctuate by 2 or 3% easily, especially when the numbers are relatively low as they are for the Lib Dems and UKIP.  They are still useful though because they show a trend over time that evens out the daily fluctuations caused by the low sample size and the trend is pretty consistent and good news for UKIP.

I'm sure UKIP will be back in its rightful third place in the next couple of polls, especially if YouGov follow the lead of the other polling companies and offer UKIP as an option alongside the LibLabCon.