Sunday, 2 December 2012

UKIP on 13% in Opinium poll

An Opinium poll for the Observer newspaper is out today showing UKIP riding high on 13%, the Lib Dems languishing on 9% and both Labour and the Tories dropping by 1% and 3% respectively.

Opinium have finally caved into common sense and added a purple line to their tracker showing UKIP's gradual rise in the polls in the last year and a half. What the graph shows is that UKIP's big jump in support in the first half of this year (when we started consistently polling above the Lib Dems) was at the expense of the Tories but the latest surge has been at the expense of both the Tories and Labour.

The current record level of support in the opinion polls may just be a blip thanks to the Rotherham child snatcher case and the three by-elections we've just had so we won't be cracking open the champagne just yet but if the current level of support is maintained a trend of a 2% increase in support every 8 months could see UKIP polling 19-20% by the 2015 general election.