Sunday, 6 January 2013

UKIP on 16%, predicted to cost Tories next election

An opinion poll for the Daily Mail has UKIP on 16% and a predicted loss of 51 seats for the Tories as a result.

I think you've earned a
smug grin Nigel
The poll by Survation and analysed by Professor John Curtice predicts a landslide Labour majority of 94 seats thanks largely to UKIP.  Curtice reckons that UKIP still won't win a Westminster seat because of the antiquated First Past the Post electoral system even though the party is projected to take 1 in 6 votes nationwide and over 50% of respondents wanted to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP.

Tories will no doubt seize on this analysis and tell UKIP supporters they're letting Labour in and what a terrible thing that would be as is their wont but that kind of reaction is just an example of why the Tories are in the situation they're in.  Tories arrogantly lay a claim to any UKIP vote, believing they belong to them in some way and mistakenly assume that UKIP supporters would rather a Tory government to Labour when the truth is, most UKIPpers couldn't choose one over the other if you put a gun to their heads.

Cameron has greeted the news that UKIP is fast leaving behind the Lib Dems and catching up with his party by telling Andrew Marr that UKIP supporters are "some pretty odd people".  He also said that the referendum the Tories have been teasing the media with will offer "a real way of giving consent" to our membership of the EU.  So he describes 1 in 6 voters as "pretty odd" and then responds to the increasingly vocal demands for an in/out referendum on EU membership that most voters want by watering down his previous promise of an in/out/reform referendum to become a no change/reform referendum.  After the next election of course, that's a Cast Iron Guarantee™.

The results of the polling are: Labour 38%, Conservative 29%, UKIP 16% and the Lib Dems on just 11%.