Monday, 21 May 2012

UKIP 4% clear of Lib Dems in Survation poll

UKIP received another polling boost yesterday with the release of a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday.


Survation differs from other opinion pollsters in mentioning UKIP alongside the three old parties and has so far proven to be more accurate at predicting UKIP's performance than other polling companies as a result.

The poll shows that UKIP is well out in front of the Lib Dems and creeping up on the Tories.  Labour was in the lead with 36.6%, the Tories were second with 25.8%, UKIP third on 11.5% and some minority party called the Lib Dems on 7.4%.

Almost 6 out of 10 of the people Survation surveyed think Greece should abandon the €uro and return to the drachma and that Germany should not fund another Greek bailout.  More than three quarters of those surveyed think Greece will leave the €uro.  Almost 4 in 10 think the €urozone will break up (nearly 5 in 10 say it won't) and 4 in 10 think the EU would be better off if it happened (3 in 10 think it would be worse).  4 in 10 think the UK would be better off if the €urozone breaks up whilst 3 in 10 think we would be worse off.  Half of people asked think that the EU will survive a break-up of the €urozone.

Opinion is split on the subject of the UK leaving the EU with 45.4% saying no and 43.8% saying yes whilst 10.8% don't know.  This is much closer than other polls which usually show a clear majority in favour of leaving.  Looking at the regional split, it is most likely London and Scotland skewing the figures.  It's a shame Survation didn't extend their policy of including UKIP with the three old parties to the respective party leaders because it would have been interesting to see how Nigel Farage compares to the three pro-EU leaders - I suspect that he would have come out top in most of the questions.
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