UKIP donor Alan Bown has commissioned Survation to conduct polling in some marginal constituencies and the results are clear: only UKIP can beat Labour or Conservative in 5 of the 7 constituencies polled so far.
In the South Thanet constituency UKIP is polling in second place and most UKIP voters wouldn't vote Conservative even if there was no UKIP candidate. In Great Grimsby UKIP is polling in second place and 70% of people who said they'd vote UKIP didn't vote Tory last time. In Dudley North constituency UKIP is polling in third place.
The latest four constituencies carry on that theme.
In Folkestone & Hythe constituency UKIP is polling second behind the Conservatives in what was a safe seat in the last general election with a 19% Tory lead over the Lib Dems who are now polling in fourth place on just 10%. The Conservatives are still polling in first place with 35% of the vote but UKIP is closing the gap with 28%, followed by Labour on 21%.
In Bognor Regis & Littlehampton constituency UKIP is again polling second behind the Conservatives in what was an even safer seat than Folkestone at the last general election. Here the majority of 27% the Tories enjoyed in 2010 has been slashed to 10% with UKIP well clear of Labour. The Tories are polling 37%, UKIP are polling 27%, Labour are polling just 20% and the Lib Dems are again languishing in fourth place on a measly 10%.
Great Yarmouth is probably the most interesting result. The UKIP vote has gone from 5% in 2010 to 30% which is enough to move to second place. The Tories currently hold Great Yarmouth but Labour are now polling in first place with 37%, UKIP is second with 30%, Conservatives are third with 28% and the Lib Dems an irrelevant fourth with just 4%. The results show that UKIP is attracting almost as many Labour voters as Tories in Great Yarmouth.
Finally, in Crewe & Nantwich the UKIP vote is lower than in the other three constituencies polled at 11% (compared to 3% in 2010) but these are fairly evenly spread across traditional Tory and Labour voters. The weak UKIP vote means Labour are predicted to hold Crewe & Nantwich (the scene of one of the most hypocritical negative election campaigns Labour has ever run in 2010) with 46% of the vote, the Tories are second on 33%, UKIP are third on 11% and the Lib Dems are fourth on 6%.
Most people who intend to vote UKIP said they would vote UKIP even if it meant Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister (another one of the ridiculous non-arguments the Tories have been peddling as a reason to vote for them) and most people said they wouldn't vote at all if there was no UKIP candidate. This shows quite clearly that there is a UKIP vote that is tribally UKIP and not a loaned vote from one of the other parties. This is another milestone in the maturity of the party and demonstrates UKIP's successful transition from a single issue protest a decade ago to the third party in UK politics and a credible party of government.